It’s the second weekend of all teams in action in PAC4 and already it’s do or die for the USA Eagles. A third place finish unlocks access to both WXV1 and a place at next year’s Rugby World cup. So it’s all on the line!
Canada, after beating the Wallaroos last week, became the Lineal World Champions as the Utrecht Shield holders for the first time. This means that their match against the Black Ferns on Sunday is now a title defence. Will they hold onto it and their position at the top of the PAC4 table? Or will the Black Ferns pick up the Shield for the 8th time and the number one spot?
My guesses last week were just a couple of points out and saw me name the wrong member of the back three as the Black Ferns player of the match. Let’s see if I can get any closer this week!
This match is a big one for these two teams. It’s the last PAC4 match for the USA Eagles as they played in the early first round match in April. Currently sitting fourth, they need to win to get off the bottom and into both WXV1 and the Rugby World Cup. The Wallaroos have another match up their sleeve to lock up third place. But given their final game is against the Black Ferns, they will likely be targeting a win this week to get it all stitched up.
They will be targeting a win but actually could get it done with a draw, so long as it comes with a four try bonus point.
That’s the stakes but it’s also an intriguing coaching battle. Sione Fukofuka, the Eagles head coach, is taking on the same team he worked with as an assistant up until the end of last year. Fukofuka has an extensive history with Australian Rugby and the women that wear the gold jersey. So if there was ever a coach ready to take this team apart, it’s Fukofuka.
Jo Yapp, the Wallaroos head, will be ready to meet him. I expect she will want to build on the flashes of brilliance that her side showed last week, in their quest to cement Aussie as a top four side.
The team Fukofuka has named sees both captain, Kate Zackary and first five, McKenzie Hawkins, back from injury. Fortunate timing on Hawkins return given Eti Haungatau went down with what appeared to be knee trouble last week. This pushes Freda Tufuna (who plays her best footy against the Black ferns I reckon) to the bench and Gabby Cantorna back out to her preferred second five spot.
The Wallaroos meanwhile have made a couple of changes between the bench and starting lineup. Bridie O’Gorman, Layne Morgan and Lori Cramer are all sitting sideline as Yapp has named Eva Karpani, Samantha Wood and Caitlyn Halse to start. This is Caitlyn Halse debut at fullback and at just 17 years old, she is the youngest Australian 15s player to ever represent her country.
So far, this youngster has taken the big stages in her stride, also breaking a record on debut for the NSW Waratah’s last year as the youngest ever player in blue at just 16 years old.
Please excuse me while I engage in a sidebar about young players rapidly ascending…
It is my personal belief that young talent climbing high performance ladders quickly is less an indication of their high quality than it is the poor health of a programme. That we have to be pulling young ones into top sides so fast, to me says that we have not invested in the players that should be there, holding them out.
There will of course, always be exceptions. But a teams inability to develop earlier players who showed promise and retain them within programmes is a red flag to me. You are relying on the supply of talent to cover shortcomings of planning. You are making success and failure an individual outcome when it should be that of your programme.
This is not a dig at Yapp but it is something to keep eyes on. We should all be weary of the churn and burn of young players.
Back to the game at hand.
The Wallaroos need to string their good phases together. They had a tendency last week to follow something brilliant up with something decidedly average. They need to nail the consistency of their execution to build themselves into this match.
Last week too, they were guilty of looking a little lost on the counter. A lot of ball was kicked to the back three but they didn’t connect as well as they could to make use of this launch. The one time the did, Maya Stewart made great metres. So more of that please.
One thing I will praise however is the massive improvement in their discipline. This was the team who seem to get a card in every World Cup match just two year ago. But last week, they picked up less penalties than the squeaky clean Canadians.
Despite it being a massive scoreline against them last week, there was plenty that the Eagles can take from their performance. For them it’s the bookends of the match that need attention.
Did you know there’s all types of stats nerds stuff on Rugby Pass?
This period of time, between the 30th and 70th minute was fantastic from the Americans. They effectively worked their way out of the hole the Black Ferns dug them to come right back into the game. It’s the bleed of points and the beginning and end of the match they will be targeting so I think the outcome game will be determined in the opening quarter.
If they can hold the Aussies out and start strongly, we will be in for a real derby. But if the Aussies get their tails up early, they will only grow in confidence as the game goes on.
Prediction: Wallaroos 42 - Eagles 24
First things first, congratulations to Tyson Beukeboom, who is running out in her 68th test making her the most capped Canadian women of all time. Debuting in 2013, Beukeboom was a member of the 2014 Rugby World Cup squad who famously made it to the final before going down to England, 21-9.
The match she plays her 68th test in is an important one. If Canada win on Sunday, they win the Pacific Four Series and leapfrog New Zealand into the number 2 spot in the World Rankings. A spot they haven’t held since November 2016. Lose and they likely lose the Pacific Four and slide down the World Rankings to 4th.
There is a version of events that sees a bonus point win mean a Pacific Four victory with a week to spare for the Black Ferns. This eventuates if the Aussies win without a bonus point and the Black Ferns win with one while denying Canada a bonus point. So a little win tonight for the Wallaroos and a big win Sunday for the Black Ferns means they are the Pacific Four champions for the 3rd year running.
The team Canada have named for this match sees their forward pack roll onward like one of their mauls from last weekend. No changes have been made to this impressive starting eight.
With Sarah-Maude Lachance going down with an injury last week, Julia Schell is named as the starting fullback. Fancy Bermudez (which might be my favourite rugby name), has moved to the right wing leaving Shoshanah Seumanutafa to slot in at 13.
I have had to wait until 4.30pm on Friday to be able to tell you about the Black Ferns lineup. For some reason they haven’t put out the team list until now which sucks for me but also the team as they have missed a whole day of headlines by delaying publishing this list. They also have only put it up on socials, not sent out the press release yet so I don’t know about injury status. SIGH.
And after all that, it’s basically an unchanged team from last week. Kate Henwood is out for Chyrss Viliko and in the back row, Layla Sae shifts to six to put Liana Mikaele-Tu’u back at number 8. One change on the bench as Aldora Itunu looks to make her return to the black jersey.
Maia Joseph, Maama Mo’onia Vaipulu and Hannah King, all had strong debuts last week and resume the same spots this week. Not starting Iritana Hohaia given the stakes of this match, does surprise me. Can only assume that Allan Bunting is wanting to build combos by giving them time on the paddock together.
Canada made last week harder for themselves than they needed to. There were so many loose carries, they killed a lot of their momentum. They were lucky at a couple of key moments - the disallowing of the Aussie try early in the first half and DaLeaka Menin double movement being missed on the way to her try. This isn’t the standard Canada like to hold themselves to and those type of mistakes against an attacking side like the Black Ferns, will be fatal.
Their forward pack though, is looking formidable as ever and their maul is a metre eater any time they look to deploy it. Good practice for the Black Ferns to try and contain this ahead of the Red Roses tests in September.
The Black Ferns need to learn how to hold the tempo that they set. If they come hissing out the gate, we need to see them hold their foot on the gas if they are going to be able to chase the world number one down later this year. Last week, they should have put 70 on the Eagles. That they had a long dry spell in the middle of that match, should be a cause for concern.
How the Black Ferns forwards come together against this well-oiled Canadian machine is the key to this match. The Canadians will play good, well disciplined rugby, using their forwards to work themselves into position to strike. The Black Ferns need to throw them off this rhythm and pull them into their own freeform style if they want to take hold of this match.
Prediction: The Black Ferns will win but it will be tighter than it has been, 26 - 21.
With you,
Alice