Perhaps I jinxed the Black Ferns when I posted on social media last week with Shania Twain’s Man! I feel like a Woman! Twain said “Let’s go girls!” and Canada boldly followed her direction. Breaking a lifelong drought when they beat the Black Ferns for the very first time.
I can’t say I was surprised. But no matter how a game plays out there is an expectation on our national team to pull a rabbit out of their hat in the last 10 minutes. But isn’t that expectation representative of the current problem with women’s rugby in New Zealand? We rely on individual brilliance to cover up for poor planning.
I can’t decide if it was experimentation or arrogance that drove decisions made last week. Either way, we turned up undercooked and the Canadians finished us off.
It was clear they had done their homework. Canada read our predictable patterns and met us with muscle. They happily proved that it’s not just their forwards that can get the job done. Black Ferns fans may lament their maul try that wasn’t given. But the Canadians were equally hard done by when Amy du Plessis got off being turned inside out on defence.
Game drivers are a problem for the Black Ferns. They were the glaring omission in our contracted squad when we named just two options at first five. We were exposed in the lack of experience in the halves. It was evident when we looked lost on the field. All of this was exploited by a Canadian team that moved as one cohesive unit both on attack and defence.
After a week spent talking about bringing the fear back to the fern, other confirmed teams in WXV1 will have been taking notes on how to topple them. I fear our ferns aren’t where we need to be and are quickly running out of time to get there.
The poor ol’ Wallaroos couldn’t hold their nerve or their lead over the USA Eagles. This now sets them up with toughest of assignments - beat a team you have never beaten or head to WXV2 and a scrap for World Cup qualification.
The trouble for both New Zealand and Australia from here is that they are now in a desert domestically. We don’t have high quality rugby scheduled to keep them sharp before the end of year action.
That all said, let’s take a look at the match this weekend.
This is the first of the two trans Tasman tests played annually for the Laurie O’Reilly Cup. Given Canada lifted the Pacific Four trophy last week, the Black Ferns will want to hold on to the memorial trophy of their first coach. That’s essentially the sum of what’s at stake for the Black Ferns. Well, that and pride. Which, if they were to lose this week, would be seriously injured.
The Wallaroos have nothing to lose this week and have the odds stacked firmly against them. Free from any expectation, I hope they put up a real fight. We know they have it in them. We saw it last year in their upset win over France. We saw it in flashes of their first round match against Canada. We saw it in their first half against USA. Will we see it tomorrow?
The Aussies have named just three changes to their starting lineup. Ashley Marsters is out with an ankle injury and so Leilani Nathan comes in at openside flanker. Kaitlan Leaney makes way for Atasi Lafai in the locks and Trilleen Pomare is switched out for Cecilia Smith at 12.
The Black Ferns have rung in more changes. Introducing the experience which was lacking last week. This is most evident in the starting pack whose combined tests jump from 103 to 135 this week. Amy Rule replaces Tanya Kalounivale while Alana Bremner takes a jersey more commonly worn by her sister, coming in to lock alongside Maiakawanakaulani Roos.
Kaipo Olsen-Baker gets her first start of the series at number 8, pushing Liana Mikaele-tu’u back to number 7. Olsen-Baker has been the bright spot at the back end of both Black Ferns matches so far. Her promotion to the starting lineup will no doubt see her shine even brighter.
Experience has been prioritised at halfback too, with Iritana Hohaia finally being given the start. Her experience is vital as her Hurricane Poua team mate, Hannah King, has her first ever Black Ferns start outside Hohaia at 10. King has shown a calmness in big games that defies her time in the jersey at the Aupiki level. The Black Ferns will hope that this translates to the international stage.
Renee Holmes makes her return from injury, taking back her rightful place as our starting fullback. This has pushed Mererangi Paul to the wing and Ruby Tui out of the game day squad. Holmes back at fullback will give Black Ferns fans a big sigh of relief. The back three looked uncharacteristically disconnected last week and Holmes leadership should tighten things back up.
Given how both these teams have travelled in the competition so far, the meat in the middle of the match is going to be what counts. Both have been guilty of strong starts and finishes with messy periods in between. Who scores either side of the half will be crucial in this one. It’s the Black Ferns game to lose but the Wallaroos will be doing everything in their power to help them do just that.
Prediction: 42-12 to the Black Ferns
If you’re going to be sad to see the back of Pacific women’s rugby, NEVER FEAR! The Oceania Women’s Rugby Championship kicks off tonight. All games will be streamed live and free on RugbyPass.TV you just have to create an account.
The winner gets a spot in the Rugby World Cup next year and the top two qualify for WXV3. WXV is the last place to try and qualify for the World Cup with the top six ranked non-qualified teams at the end of WXV 2024 qualifying for the tournament.
This tournament is played at a sprint given the limited resources and amateur status of these sides. First round is played tonight, followed by round two on Wednesday 29 May and round three on 2 June. I think Aupiki is over too soon!
These tournaments are always a fun watch as many of our New Zealand based players run out for their countries of heritage. They also have the best supporters out, so the vibe is always immaculate. Past performance would say this will be a battle between Fiji and Samoa again but keep an eye on Tonga and how they improve!
With you,
Alice