A deeper look at participation numbers
Wasn't it supposed to be 40%?
Remember how we were expecting massive growth this year for women and girl’s rugby? The press release dropped in March and we were told to expect a 40% jump in our numbers. New Zealand Rugby told us would may have 35,000 players registered. Well, the results are in this week and the governing body have fallen well short of their projections.
The reported number for women and girls participation this year was 29,448. I haven’t been able to find verified numbers for the 2022 season but it must have be an increase this year of between 18%-20%. I likely haven’t been able to find these numbers for 2022 cause it actually represented a decrease from the reported participation total of 27,392 in 2021. So not something they would want to make a lot of noise about.
GIRL MATH
To get to that 18-20% number, here is my working.If I believe March spin and 35,000 represents a 40% increase then 35,000 x 0.6 = 25,000. And so 29,448 is a 18% growth on that base.
If I believe November spin, then RNZ reports this as 20% growth. Which means 29,448 x 0.8 = 23,558 players who were registered last year.
Whether it’s 18 or 20%, it sure as eggs isn’t the 40% they were projecting. It’s growth yes but not by the metric they announced themselves. That’s bad.
It also means our participation numbers have not yet recovered from the Covid shock. That’s double bad.
Here’s the clearer picture for you of how things have moved.
The little hatched bit to represent the ambiguity of where we landed in 2022.
So the top line story, just like I told you in this newsletter at the beginning of the year, is that we are still in recovery mode from the Covid.
What they did go to pains to highlight in the press release are the two stats they provided with both the 2022 and 2019 comparison points.
11,540 junior club girls: 36%+ on 2019 (+14% on 2022)
4,515 senior club women: 40%+ on 2019 (+28% on 2022)
Now, this IS good news. It’s fucking great news actually. It means that we are seeing a slow turning of the tide in our clubrooms which is long overdue. It does however leave me with questions.
1. What’s happening to the meat in the middle? AKA our school girls.
The way the pathway walks for girls in the game is that you play your juniors at club, then between 13-18 at school and then back into the club system. So are we experiencing a drop off there? Is that the part that’s struggling the most compared to 2019 numbers?
What is the geographic spread of this growth?
That second question is a burning one as a Wellingtonian women’s club coach. This season was a return to our debut season all the way back in 1990. With the same numbers of clubs running out as they did that year and the lowest in my playing memory (which is 21 years long here).
So if we are seeing such a massive growth in the senior game in particular, where is it growing?? I want to know so I can go ask some questions of folk playing and administrating in that region so that I can then advocate for their best practice here in my backyard.
I’ve sent a request in to NZR for more detail so hopefully it comes and I can share it with you.
I’ve been ranting all over my social media this week about PWR season launch. It was A++ and what I hope we can take inspiration from for this Aupiki season.
I understand the squad details are due to drop Monday next week for the 2024 season. So my trusty spreadsheet and I will be back to give you insight into the ins, outs and transfers ahead of the third season.
Matatū are out the gate early though with a big steal from the Hurricane Poua. Kaipo Olsen-Baker now confirmed that she’ll be headed south next season. Given the Black Fern factory that operates out of Canterbury HQ, this is a smart move for Olsen-Baker personally. When she’s at full strength, she is a true contender for the Black Ferns starting 8 spot. She’s struggled to find that full return to form post leg break in the Hurricanes region so the conditioning this team is known for will do her a world of good.
This doesn’t paint a great picture for my local loves, the Poua though. Given they have had a full change over in coaching staff, players were ripe for the poaching and I expect we will see a couple of the franchises have gone shopping in our team list. Victoria Grant’s maternity cover is unknown in the women’s scene and while we don’t seem to have a formal process for talent ID, that matters. His name is not a drawcard to that franchise and the established identities at Matatū, Manawa and the Blues will have been doing their best to woo talent.
Going to make for an interesting squads announcements next week. Watch this space!
With you,
Alice