Opening round features the Blues favourite match up halfback Mel Puckett reckons.
It is 10.32am on Friday the 1st March. Aupiki kicks off the first match of the 2024 season tomorrow at 2.05pm and I don’t have any team lists. As I write this, none of the four franchises have published their squads. Normally, I would wait around all day for these to drop and then write with haste. But today I have the audacity to be going on a little holiday.
The men’s lists were universally published on Wednesday, if you were wondering. Just another work on for this tournament. If you’re reading this and you’re involved with these teams, please, please, make it easier for me to cover.
Without teamlists, I’m going to have to go off best guesses to prep you ahead of these games. So apologies if some of my predictions are wrong, I’m working in the dark.
GAME ONE: Chiefs Manawa vs Hurricanes Poua, 2.05pm 2 March
These two teams played in the opening round of last year and then first 20 minutes had me dreaming of a Poua championship. Then the wheels fell off and they lost 43-21. I am predicting that it will be a similarly tough ask for the Poua tomorrow, to hang with this slick Manawa side for 80 minutes.
It is no secret that the Poua have a greener side while the Manawa are basically the Black Ferns and friends. I was well impressed with the Poua newcomers, Hannah King and Kalyn Takitimu-Cook as well as the return of Leilani Perese. The issue the Poua will have is depth on the bench. One they will need to draw on as their conditioning isn’t quite there yet.
The bench is where the Manawa are formidable. If I’m guessing at a starting lineup in you might run:
Krystal Murray
Luka Connor
Tanya Kalounivale
Charmaine Smith
Chelsea Bremner
Victoria Edmonds
Mia Anderson
Kennedy Simon
Arihiana Marino-Tauhinu
Hazel Tubic
Ruby Tui
Chelsea Semple
Grace Steinmetz
Mererangi Paul
Renee Holmes
That leaves you talent on your bench like prop Kate Henwood, netball transfer Grace Kukutai, halfback Ariana Bayler, league international Apii Nicholls and coaches dream bench option hooker/winger Merania Paraone. My point being you’re exchanging power for power when making your substitutes.
That forward pack will likely embrace the rolling maul to keep Luka Connor in top try scorers. But if the game in tight doesn’t work, pick literally any player outside 10 to score.
My predicted Poua starting side is:
Cilia-Marie Po’e-Tofaeono
Tamia Edwards
Leilani Perese
Rachael Rakatau
Jackie Patea-Fereti
Maddie Feaunati
Rhiarna Ferris
Layla Sae
Iritana Hohaia
Hannah King
Harmony Kautai
Monica Tagoai
Shakira Baker
Kalyn Takitimu-Cook
Isabella Waterman
If this is the case, the battles to watch are at halfback, number 8 and midfield. Marino-Tauhinu v Hohaia is incumbent vs challenger halfback. Likewise Simon v Sae is a change for Sae to really make her case for more regular Black Fern game time. That midfield combo the Poua are sporting would be one of the strongest in the comp. Expect a lot of their launch play to come from there.
The best chance the Poua has is the element of surprise. Contrary to most rugby teams from this region, they are strong starters. They want to come out hissing and then hold on to that lead like a dog on a rope. There isn’t the same type of footage for the coaches to analyse given the newness of their squad. So lean into that and let your young ones shine.
GAME TWO: Matatū vs Blues, 4.35pm 2 March
Mel Puckett reckons Matatū are the Blues favourite game to play. Well, this match is also one of my favourite to watch. The opener last year was one by just 2 points by the Matatū and in the semi-final they snuck home by 3.
This is a classic New Zealand Rugby game. Just like the Northern vs Southern Hemisphere clashes of old, this is North Island vs South Island rugby. It’s flair vs ticker.
Guessing at a Matatū starting lineup:
Pip Love
Georgia Ponsonby
Amy Rule
Emma Dermody
Stacey Niao
Alana Bremner
Lucy Jenkins
Kaipo Olsen Baker
Di Hiini
Liv McGoverne*
Charlotte Woodman
Grace Brooker
Amy du Plessis
Martha Mataele
Rosie Kelly*
*these two could be reversed as both can play 10 or 15
I haven’t put Kendra Reynolds on the field which feels blasphemous. I think they should actually slot her at flank and slide Bremner into lock alongside Emma Dermody but time will tell.
Matatū have a heck of a team and one that has played a lot of footy together. It is more or less an elevation of their Canterbury side. Everyone says “clinical” and “conditioned” when talking about this team. But the reality is they are a group of players who know their roles inside and out. They play within these definitions because there is real cohesion across the group meaning they don’t have to pick up anyone else’s job.
That said, they were exposed at times in the pre-season by the direct running of the Poua. The Blues like a hardline too so they will be looking to pick up where the Poua left off.
My guess at a Blues team:
Sophie Fisher
Grace Gago
Aldora Itunu
Maia Roos
Eloise Blackwell
Dajian Brown
Nial Williams Guthrie
Charmaine McMenamin
Mel Puckett
Krysten Cottrell
Angelica Mekemeke Vahai
Ruahei Demant
Sylvia Brunt
Katelyn Vaha'akolo
Patricia Maliepo
Liana Mikaele-Tu’u is out with a hamstring so will likely miss this week and next. A big blow for the Blues but one that can be softened if Charmaine McMenamin returns to the fold.
This is a great Blues team on paper with firepower across the paddock. I would really be looking forward to the battles in the front row. Aldora Itunu could have some real fun here. If she can do that for 60 minutes, you might see her get a call back to the Black Ferns.
That backline is what dreams are made of and I haven’t even put Jaymie Kolose on the field. They offer a real counter point to the strategy and structure of the Matatū backline they will be squaring off against. I think their offload game will be key to unlocking a win.
I can’t tell you who takes this. But I can tell you it will be the game of the round to watch.
With you,
Alice