Everything I can tell you about this World Cup Squad

A download from my brain and my spreadsheets

I am writing this analysis from Dunedin. I have the last of my non-rugby commitments to wrap up this weekend and then I am fully locked in. Living this jigsaw life is tough at times. I feel like I am constantly chasing and doing work. But then there are time like this, where I get to make my hyper fixation my vocation and I feel incredibly lucky. So thanks to all of you, my paid subscribers, for funding this habit.

You’ve allowed me the time this week that I promised I would dedicate to providing the analysis of this World Cup squad that you deserve. And oh mate, the spreadsheets. I created a seperate tab called “interesting graphs”. If only my 7th form stats teacher could see me now!

So let me tell you all about the interesting trends I’ve seen while digging into this data.

How have we shifted?

In 2022, a Black Fern in our World Cup squad was on average a 26 year old from Canterbury. She played for the Chiefs Manawa and debuted in this World Cup cycle. She had just 12 tests under her belt.

And in 2025? She’s still a 26 year old but now she’s just as likely to be from Auckland as she is from Canterbury. She plays for the Blues and debuted before this cycle. Despite the shorter timeframe between World Cups this cycle, she’s still picked up more experience. Having played on average 19 tests for the Black Ferns.

That’s the average but the aggregate is also interesting. In 2022, 69% of our team had debuted that cycle - that’s a lot of green on the grass! Whereas in 2025, this has dropped significantly to 40%. If I take our Risi Pouri-Lane and Jorja Miller, who yes did technically debut in 15s this year but bring a LOT of international experience, this number falls further to 34%.

This highlights to me a couple of things.
1. Just how chaotic the previous cycle was.

I knew in my bones we were churning through talent. Rocketing players up the ranks to become one test wonders. But when I went back and checked the numbers I was still surprised. We debuted a shocking 49 players between 2017 and 2022. Yes this is a slightly longer cycle but that includes 12 players pulling on the black jersey in the World Cup year.

What this says to me is that we had no real pathway laid out to walk our talent through. So you end up with this mess. Casting a wide net and then throwing a bunch of players back when they weren’t immediately ready for this next stage.

The first of my interesting graphs. Note that in shorter cycling leading into 2017 was because World Rugby shifted the timing as to avoid a clash with the emerging sevens scene.

2. The rise of experience
The other shift is related to experience. As I noted at the top, the average number of tests across this squad has jumped from 12 in 2022 to 19 this year. But perhaps what’s more important is this is tied to a more even distribution of experience.

In 2022, the number of players in our World Cup squad that had played less than 10 test was 19. The number that had played over 20, a milestone that has been long celebrated in the Black Fern environment given the number of years it would take to hit it, was just 5.

In 2025, these numbers have basically flipped. With only 8 of our squad having played less than 10 tests and 16 having played more than 20. A moment here to advocate again for us to make YEARS of service as opposed to NUMBER of games of women’s rugby the marker for celebration. Because already we are seeing legends records being eclipsed.

Interesting graph number 2

What’s even more interesting about this spread is that the age range of these players is fairly comparable. So in 2022, the average age of a Black Fern in our World Cup squad was 26. It’s the same this cycle. The youngest player in both 2022 and 2025 was 18. The oldest player this cycle is one year older than in 2022.

So it’s not like players have grown up to gain this experience. The game has.

Interesting graph number 3

I’ve said it many times but WXV was a game changer for rugby in this part of the World and not just for those emerging nations. It’s the first time we have had international windows clearly defined that can then dress. This regularity in matches is what’s driven the betterment of pay conditions for players. You can’t be part time anymore with a full time schedule. These improvements in conditions improve the retention of talent, thus you more evenly spread your experience across the board.

I have heard they are binning WXV from next year and I’m gutted. Look, the Black Ferns will be okay but I can’t necessarily say the same of women’s rugby as a whole. The plans I’ve seen look like they might look to entrench the current pecking order. Rather than give the chance for the promotion and relegation motivator to really kick in and make WXV all the more enjoyable.

The detractors of WXV said it was too complicated. But isn’t a competition that is looking to be the tide that raises multiple boats always going to be? Why must we always default to easy? Rugby is a sport that has games within games. We need to recognise that as a strength rather than be constantly apologising for it. The same could then be leveraged to market a competition like WXV.

ANYWAY, back to the squad analysis.

Things to keep an eye on

Tied to the above is the changing impact of sevens players. All up, the number of players that have played sevens for New Zealand in this World Cup squad is 7. That figure includes one player, Katelyn Vahaakolo, who has made the opposite jump. Having been leant to the Sevens programme in the last season due to injury woes.

Add to this the fact that Braxton Sorensen-McGee has been signed onto a hybrid contract between the programmes and this is perhaps a sign of evolving landscape for our high performance athletes.

While the number with sevens experience is 7, the number straight from the programme is only 4. With Portia Woodman-Wickliffe famously retiring from the sport only to come out of retirement for the longer format. Meanwhile Kelly Brazier, having experienced disappointment in the sevens space, dedicated herself to 15s this last season. Climbing the ladder back up from provincial rugby and confirm her spot.

For the last decade the only truly professional rugby players in New Zealand were sevens players. With 15s now paying a more respectable wage and the calendar starting to offer more playing opportunities, we may see more players choose to more hungrily pursue a Black Ferns contract.

But the one they sign is no doubt changing. I predict more players to be like Braxton and Katelyn this next cycle. Seeing the boundaries between 15s and 7s players blur. Returning us back to the state of things before the introduction of sevens into the Olympics.

One last thing I will leave you on is the warning the provincial spread should be sounding at NZR headquarters.

Can you spot the problem? It’s right there in the middle of the above graphic. Wellington with only one player in the World Cup squad. We have a population of around half a million in this region and yet can only find one player to represent us on the World stage.

The worry for NZR is that that isn’t actually true. There are more players from Wellington headed to the World Cup, just not in a black jersey. Maddie Feaunati has been named in the Red Roses squad and numerous players are involved in the current Samoan side and will likely be named for the World Cup. So clearly there is talent here but the road to a black jersey is currently blocked.

Addressing this issue in the Wellington region needs to be a priority for them within this next cycle. If only there was a passionate person who was obsessed with rugby in this region… oh yeah, that’s me. I am the way I am because rugby is the way it is here. So they could fix two headaches at once if they just gave me a call.

I won’t hold my breath!

With you,

Alice