Fighting for your spot

Quarter finals in the Championship, semi final spots in the Premiership and RWC squad shaping up

It is crunch time this weekend with seasons and World Cup spots on the line. The Farah Palmer Cup Championship sees top qualifiers, Otago Spirit and Hawke’s Bay Tui have a week off while the others compete for the right to play in the semi finals.

They aren’t the only ones! The Premiership table is looking a little jammed in the middle with the Auckland Storm, Wellington Pride, Counties Manukau Heat and Bay of Plenty Volcanix all competing for the last two semi final spots.

Meanwhile, the Black Ferns have rung in the changes for the second Laurie O’Reilly match in what will be the last test before the World Cup. It’s my understanding that there will still be at least one more match for the side, against a New Zealand Barbarians team. But you would have to think by that stage, auditions would be over and the side would be in place for this dress rehearsal.

I could assign you matches to what but this week I’m going to let you get behind your team and instead explain the different pathways to play offs.

If you’re an Otago Spirit, Hawke’s Bay Tui, Canterbury or Waikato fan. Congratulations, you’ve already got yourself a home semi next week. So you can perhaps instead take a look at how your potential competition is looking.

In the Championship, the Spirit finished in first place and the Tui in second. So chances are your semis will most likely be Otago versus Tasman and Hawke’s Bay versus ya ol’ mates the Northland Kauri.

I’m picking that but hey, who knows. Maybe the Whio and Hibiscus pull off an upset. Hibiscus are the more likely of the two to prove me wrong cause as Vic pointed out, they scored 15 points against the Spirit in 10 minutes last week.

Meanwhile in the Premiership, I have to put the notes on a back of an envelope.

Here’s the different pathways my brain can barely figure out.

• Auckland Storm: Win? Easy they are through without having to fuss about bonus points. Win with a bonus point and Waikato lose with no bonus points, they could pinch the home semi.

  Lose? They are still in the hunt so long as the Heat and Volcanix lose their games.
  Simplest path to semis: Win

• Wellington Pride: Win? Well they will want to do that with a bonus point. If they score their 4 tries on the way to a victory, safe, you have a final. Win without bonus point? Well, now we could end up in a points differentials battle with Auckland (if they have two bonus points) or the Heat and Volcanix if they have bonus point wins.
  Simplest path to semis: Win with bonus point

• Counties Manukau Heat: Win? Well you need other results to help you out. If the Storm win and Volcanix lose, then the you nab the last spot no drama. If Volcanix win then you need them to not get a bonus points cause otherwise you enter the murky world of points differentials. If Wellington win even without a bonus point, it’s differential time!

  Simplest path to the semis: Win, Auckland win and Volcanix lose.

• Bay of Plenty Volcanix: This story is the same as the above for the Counties Manukau Heat as they ended up on the same points at the end of the season.

  Simplest path to the semis: Win, Auckland win and Heat lose.

My head hurts.

Black Ferns
Geri Paul reckons this is a 60+ team they’ve named. I tend to agree, so I think the result is a bit of a foregone conclusion. Still plenty to keep an eye on though! So here are the things I’ll be paying attention to:

• Front row: we have a whole new set on display and a potential debut from Santo Taumata. What will happen to the quality of set piece with these changes?

• Reynolds with the start at flanker. Wise I believe as she is a better starter than substitute for her style of play. Does she do enough to secure the 7 jersey? Personally, I probably still see her as more of a 6 as she tends to hit first and ask questions later.

• Halfback: Kendra Cocksedge sits this one out so now is the chance for Ariana Bayler to recreate her form from last year’s Northern Tour and last week’s match against the Storm. Arihiana Marino-Tauhinu likewise, will be keen to lock in her alternate 9 spot. Pay attention to the tempo we are playing at and referee management.

• Midfield: Veteran Chelsea Semple returns alongside rookie Logo-I-Pulotu Lemapu Atai’i Sylvia Brunt. Semple will need to show some form to outside Theresa Fitzpatricks time in the jersey last week. Brunt didn’t get enough minutes last week to show what she was capable of, a strong performance could lock this jersey up for the youngest.

  It will be intriguing to what happens here in terms of substitutions. My most educated guess is a sliding out, whereby Hazel Tubic comes in at 10 pushing Ruahei Demant to 12. Do they sub Semple or slide her to 13? But both Tubic and Renee Holmes may also cover 13.

• Fullback: Big game for Grace Steinmetz on debut. Her normal spot on the wing being fairly locked up, she needs to show selectors she has versatility in order to secure her World Cup spot. If she’s substituted, Tubic or Holmes could cover her at 15 but maybe she isn’t replaced and is moved to Tui’s wing.

We are getting clearer picture of how our squad is shaping up but as you can see, there are a lot of moving parts.