PREVIEW: Farah Palmer Cup Semi Finals

TUNE IN TODAY AT 2.05PM FOR GAME ONE!

The semi finals have arrived for both the Premiership and Championship. It’s been a competitive year this year and although there have been some blow outs, I am particularly impressed with the way the Championship has developed. 

I do have broad brush concerns about this amateur league fielding professionals. The Black Ferns full time are quite the different prospect to the Black Ferns of a couple of years ago, who were only guaranteed a couple of matches each year against Australia. I actually wrote a Sunday column (sorry paywall!) on this a couple of weeks ago. It has only become more relevant since the NZR Governance review has laid bare how the template we’ve been copying from is a big ol’ financial mess. 

I’m of the potentially radical opinion that today’s Black Ferns shouldn’t be playing the Farah Palmer Cup. But if they absolutely must, then we need to resign ourselves to some cricket scores amongst the results. What I didn’t say in that column but have always thought is that Aupiki is silly where it sits. Why not align with the Farah Palmer Cup so that pre-season is essentially the last couple of weeks of this competition where things always end up heating up.

ANYWAY ahead of the action this today and āpōpō, let’s take a look at the matches and how we got here. 

GAME ONE: Waikato vs Auckland Storm

The Storm have bookended their round robin with losses. An unreal match against the Hawkes Bay Tui first up, saw Krysten Cottrell kick them just clear to win 32-31. Similarly there was only a kick between them and Canterbury last week when they went down 27-24. So after their typically slow start, they are now picking up momentum just in time for playoffs.

I rate this Auckland team. It physically pains me to say this as a former Pride player but I reckon they have the right mix of experience and new talent to go all the way. Yes they have Black Ferns but perhaps more important is how they are distributed across the paddock. Locks, loosies, first five, midfield and wing. That a heck of a spine to build your team off.

With Ruahei Demant at 10, they of course play high risk rugby. But then again, so has every Storm team that I can remember.

Meanwhile, Waikato started strong but seems to be running out of a bit of gas these last couple of weeks. Technically, they have only dropped one game so far this against Auckland but really, they were lucky not to be beaten by the woodspooners from Wellington last week.

Cover your eyes please Wellington - Seriously, the Pride shouldn’t have gotten anywhere near that close. I don’t know what to tell you, the vibe seems off. Is it coaching? Is it culture? I don’t know but I would never be foolish enough to write off a side that knows their way around playoff footy.

They look their best when they run direct. Of course they do cause that’s when Chyna Hohepa, Kennedy Simon, Tanya Kalounivale and Grace Houpapa-Barrett are in their happy place. Carla Hohepa and Ana Marsters have been combing really nicely in the midfield and have caused havoc when they start sparking off each other.

Prediction: Auckland with the edge, win within 12.

The Manawatū Cyclones were relegated and the Wellington Pride pinched their coach so they are playing like they have something to prove. Nobody has been able to touch them as they finish the season unbeaten with 252 points for and only 78 against.

I feel like the Cyclones are a good example of a high functioning rural province. Were we to stack all 13 team into one competition, I think you would find they were consistently finishing between 5-8. That’s not any type of diss. They are only a small province so to be able to hold their own and produce high quality talent against the Black Fern factories of Canterbury and Auckland, is very impressive.

The pain of it is for them that they find themselves yo-yoing between Premiership and Championship season to season. It’s bloody hard to climb up there, harder still to survive your next season.

But Manawatū are known for their work rate so they are odds on to cruise past Tasman to the final.

The Mako however have come along way from 2020, where their union controversially asked folks to not stream their matches because they didn’t want to be seen to lose publicly. They have been beaten by each of the other semi-finalist so far this season but they have played some good footy.

This has been helped along in large part by the Manu Sina contingent. Cassie Siataga and Sui Tauaua-Pauaraisa getting their fins up and getting to work. They have also seen some young talent emerge in 16 year old, Sarah Jones. She isn’t yet the finished product but she has many years ahead of her to add finesse to her natural physicality.

Prediction: Cyclones emphatically to the final, 12+

Bloody good on Hawke’s Bay. From pipping the Otago Spirit in last year’s thriller Championship final, to knocking over Auckland in round one, the Tui have been a joy to watch this season. There’s the delightful mother daughter combo of Julie and Teilah Ferguson, the relentless Kat Brown and of course, the queen of the black and white, Krysten Cottrell.

Cottrell is a fantastic game manager. Like Emma Jensen before her, it’s her rugby brain as much as her skillset which has consistently delivered for the Tui. She’s a player you’d feel confident going to war with. This is useful given they have a very tough match lined up against Canterbury.

When these two faced each other in the round robin it was a try fest for Canterbury. Finishing the match 84-14.

Like Auckland, Canterbury have Black Ferns everywhere. Front row, loosies, 1st five and midfield. They are so stacked, they have named Black Fern Chelsea Bremner and Hurricane Poua star, Isabella Waterman, on their bench.

It’ll be the upset to end all upsets if they don’t progress to the final. They’ve made every single one since 2017 after all.

Prediction: Big win for Canterbury 12++++

Full disclosure at the top, my heart wants the Northland Kauri to win. Since Rawinia Everitt took over and has brought the full power of this region to the fore, it’s impossible not to cheer for her side to go all the way.

So far they have done what Everitt set out to do. Taking a team that’s good on paper and translating that to results. They have only lost one match this season, a tight one against the Cyclones, 34-28.

The Kauri on their whenua are a tough team to beat. Last time Otago made the trip north, the Kauri scored 3 tries in the opening 20 minutes and had locked in their bonus point by halftime.

Is it any wonder when they have not just Black Ferns across the paddock. Sure, some of them might not have pulled on the black jersey for a while but they wear the sky blue one with immense pride. It’s been great to see Te Kura Ngata-Aerengamate clearly enjoying herself. I will always get a thrill watching Krystal Murray kick. Charmaine Smith is a grinder as ever and legendary flanker, Aroha Savage, can play first five now??

It’s not just my heart that’s picking the Kauri for this one, the odds in are in their favour too.

What Otago need is to find some of that slick width and relentless ruck work that drove them all the way to the brink of promotion last year. Leah Miles will no doubt be busy as always and their midfield pairing of Hill and Cunningham should open up some opportunities. The Spirits most capped player (as of last week!), Sharee Hume, will lead by example.

This Otago team won’t go down without a fight.

Prediction: Northland Kauri, 12+

With you,
Alice