Round Two: Aupiki Preview

The changing landscape of Super Rugby

This week features a couple of grudge matches. With the foundational franchises, Blue and Chiefs Manawa, facing off in a replay of both the exhibition match of 2021 and last year’s final. Before the Matatū host their bogey team the Hurricanes Poua.

Putting the stats together for the above summary outlined for me the changing landscape of our Super Rugby Aupiki competition. It wasn’t until last season that the Blues and Matatū record their first wins over these sides. But odds on it’ll be another win for these two this weekend.

Let’s dig into the detail and look at what you can expect from round 2.

GAME ONE - Blues vs Manawa

Let’s start with the changes. For the Blues, they don’t touch their starting forward pack or their replacements and why would they? They are the players that delivered a 100% scrum and 90% line out success. The surprise is at halfback where Kahlia Awa has switched places with Tara Turner, who this week gets the start. The competition between these two is fast becoming a contest to watch within the wider contest of halfbacks vying for Black Ferns selection.

In a surprise to no one who watched the last 20 minutes of the Blues game last week (or someone who received a text after the Blues practiced at a public park), Portia Woodman-Wickliffe has been moved to start at centre. This pushes Sylvia Brunt to the bench, which like - I love watching Portia but if she really isn’t going to make herself available for World Cup selection, why are we taking valuable minutes off someone who will be?

This selection though just flexes how strong the Blues are right now. They can ask their bench to come on and change up rather than just hold the line. I know it’s only week two but do we really think anyone is going to beat them this year?

The Manawa have also mixed things up this week. The starting eight is unchanged but Tanya Kalounivale has joined Luka Connor in the injury ward, so we have Santo Taumata makes her return to rugby being named on the bench. Likewise, Leata Puni-Lio has picked up an injury making room for Rebecca Burch.

All the intrigue is in the backline. Mererangi Paul heads to the wing to mark up Katelyn Vahaakolo meaning Azalleyah Maaka is marking Portia. Black Ferns fullback, Renee Holmes, is benched for Tenika Willison. I really hope this isn’t another case of the World Cup promotional curse, that we saw take out Les Elder and Chelsea Semple (nee Alley) in 2022.

The Chiefs have got a two for one deal on Mataeles with Martha joining her husband at the franchise. For all the constant noise I hear about managing relationships in sport, it’s always women in same sex relationships and never situations like this! This is not a dig at Martha for following her husband but was this shift on anyone’s radar ahead of his signing?

At any rate, it’s a great get for the Manawa though because they now have a power ball carrier they’ve been missing in the backline. Surely Mataele’s pulled on in the centres early in the second half.

I am surprised that the Manawa have dropped Reese Anderson from the squad all together this week. She was second placed on metres gained for the team last week and for her percentage of getting over the gain line with her carries. Anderson was a bright spark but I am assuming Kiriana Nolan get’s the nod ahead of her due to her versatility.

All in all, this still looks like a Manawa team finding it’s feet. Coming up against a Blues side who haven’t lost since this point last season, it’s hard to see this going their way.

Prediction? 38-26 to the Blues.

GAME TWO: Matatū vs Poua

No injuries have forced the hand of selections this week as neither team picked up additional niggles last week. Better still for the Poua, their unavailable list has shrunk significantly, now just featuring Payton Takimoana and Shakira Baker.

The Matatū have made just one shuffle but no personnel changes to their team list from last week. Marcelle Parkes coming into the starting line up for Pip Love who takes her place on the bench.

By contrast, the Poua have reshuffled and replaced. In the front row, Angel Mulu is the only starter from last week who survived, slipping over to tighthead. Joining her this week will be Mele Tavake at loose and Forne Burkin as the hooker. These changes no doubt in response to the set piece last week, where the Poua only won 67% of their scrums and 55% of their line outs.

Speaking of line outs, the countries most famous line out thief, Joanah Ngan-Woo, is back in the starting lineup. Jackie Patea-Fereti taking her place on the bench but otherwise forward replacements and starting pack is unchanged.

In the backline, there’s been one switch with Teilah Ferguson going to the right wing and Leilani Hakiwai coming into 13. That’s a big assignment Hakiwai now has to contain Amy du Plessis. On the bench this week, the Poua have more experience to draw from with Te Rauoriwa Gapper and Harmony Kautai both cleared to play.

I am looking forward to see if Elinor-Plum can pick up from her fantastic performance last week. Lucy Jenkins will no doubt try to disrupt that action. And just how many minutes will get this week in the battle of the Black Ferns number 8s, Kaipo Olsen-Baker vs Layla Sae?

Iritana Hohaia and Maia Joseph fight for the starting 9 jersey in the Black Ferns side and will bring that same energy to this match. Hohaia grasped the baton from Arihiana Marino-Tauhinu with a stand out performance in their head to head contest last season. Will she get the edge over Joseph tomorrow?

It took Matatū all the way to round five of last year to finally get their first win over the Poua. I don’t think they will have to wait that long to secure their second. I expect the Poua to have improved from their match last week but the same goes for Matatū. It’s the continuity of the Matatū up against the chaos of the Poua. It’ll be tight, these games between these two usually are. But picking Matatū to edge them at the finish, 24-17.

With you,
Alice