Super Rugby Aupiki: Round One
Preview of all the action kicking off tomorrow
We are finally on the eve of Aupiki 2025 and I am fucking fizzing! I have spent all day doing my favourite thing, wading through data and collating spreadsheets, to try and visualise it first, to talk about it second.
Not since the inaugural season of 2022 have we had these two teams face each other in round one. This feels like a real treat as we have had a preview of next week’s action in preseason. So we are coming in fresh to 2025!
Game one is Chiefs Manawa hosting Matatū at FMG Stadium at 2.05pm. This is going to be free to air on Sky Open so if you’re in Aotearoa, you have no excuse not to catch it. Then we have the Hurricanes Poua facing the Blues at Sky Stadium at 4.35pm, live on Sky Sport 2.
I have made enquiries and am told that Stan is broadcasting in Australia and the rest of the world will have to make do with highlights promptly uploaded to the All Blacks Youtube channel.
Les and I gave a Aupiki overview on our first episode of our podcast, Full Credit, this week. So if you need a scene setter we got you! Thanks to all that have provided such positive feedback on the show so far.
That was the broad brush though, so let’s dig into the detail!
GAME ONE: MANAWA vs MATATŪ
I thought the most useful exercise in the opening round would be to compare the team list from this first match with the team list of their last match in 2024.
I don’t yet have the official injury list from Manawa but know that their top try scorer, Luka Connor is on there. Unavailable due to injury for Matatū are Chey Robins-Reti, Hollyrae Mete and Tegan Hollows.
I am a little confused with what Manawa have named here. I mean this with absolutely no disrespect for those named in their first start but I’m always of the school of thought that you bring people in over time. Giving them confidence through slowly building their minutes up off the bench. So it is an eyebrow raise to have named a debutant at prop when you have two Black Ferns on the sideline.
That said, Veisinia Mahutariki-Fakalelu was outstanding for the Waikato in last year’s Farah Palmer Cup. So wishing her all the best as she hopefully brings that form with her into her first Super match.
Arihiana Marino-Tauhinu and Ariana Bayler have long battled each other for minutes. Now Marino-Tauhinu was not re-signed, the door is open for Bayler. She’s been plagued with niggles the last couple of seasons which has seen her drop out of Black Ferns conversation. So she’ll be keen to make a point up against young Maia Joseph.
If we are talking good old girls of the region, I would like to take a minute to pour one out for Victoria Edmonds, my forever captain of the criminally underrated 15. I will miss seeing her in action this year.
Manawa for me are lightest in options in the midfield. As Les pointed out to me this week, Hazel Tubic and Kelly Brazier do have similar player profiles. Those two coupled with the Mererangi Paul, who is still always more comfortably an outside back for me, I’m just not sure they will have the same punch as the other teams in the competition.
If you cast an eye over their opposition, you can see the developing players coming through. Poua appear to operate alongside the Canterbury FPC team as development pipelines for Whitney Hansen. She’s called her girls home and they are all across the paddock tomorrow.
1-13, Matatū are tried and tested. The back three are where they will be looking to grow as the season goes on. They are great young talents, having all performed well in the FPC but still a little green at this level. Particularly when up against the likes of Renee Holmes and Ruby Tui.
My prediction? Forget the TAB. I’m backing Matatū to come through with an upset. I reckon the Southerners take it, 24-17.
GAME TWO: POUA vs BLUES
I don’t have a Blues injury list but can tell you the Poua have currently got a ward at Hutt Hospital. Here’s the full list as I’ve received it:
Karlie Faneva (knee), prop/loose forward
Forne Burkin (quad), hooker
Raedeen Blake (knee), halfback
Te Rauoriwa Gapper (concussion), first five
Harmony Kautai (ankle), wing
Payton Takimoana (knee), midfield
Rangimārie Sturmey (ankle), utility back
Shakira Baker (Achilles), midfield
So while the injury news isn’t great for the Poua, they do get top marks for timeliness and details to help us monitor the health of the squad.
Let’s be honest, with a 70% retention rate across from their championship side last season, the Blues are the team to beat. And looking at their changes from the team that played the 2024 final, I’d say they are playing a very strong team first up!
Atlanta Lolohea is going to slot right into the Blues style of play. Kahlia Awa was a live wire in the back 20 all last season and now get’s to bring that fizz from the jump. Niall Williams-Guthrie is probably the teams biggest loss from last season, so it will be interesting to see how this new loose forward trio gets to work.
On the bench, we have the triumphant return of Awhina Tangen-Wainohu. Who has sensibly got herself out of the traffic jam of Black Ferns props down the road at Manawa. I feel about Harono Te Iringa the same way I feel about Victoria Edmonds. She’s just a good ol’ grafter. Sure, she might not get a call up for higher honours but she’s the type of player you’d want alongside you when things get crunchy.
The Storm players all love their baby, Braxton Sorensen-McGee, at the back. So keen to see how she goes while Patricia Maliepo is still sidelined with injury (know that one thanks to her visible cast on Katelyn’s tiktoks).
Poua by contrast are a real pick and mix crew. The starting lineup, would not be entirely unfamiliar to those who have watched women’s rugby in this region. Their biggest risk against the Blues comes from the bench where they lack the comparative depth. I have faith in the mongrel of these underdogs though. And from what I’ve seen so far in the pre-seasons, they’ve been primed to get right into the scrap.
The highlight for all who tune into this match though has to be seeing the Black Ferns two top wingers go head to head. Ayesha Leti-I’iga was still out with injury at this time last year, so she is making her very welcome return to Aupiki. Named opposite Katelyn Vahaakolo, I could not be more excited for this game within the game.
I am predicting a good first half for the Poua, heck maybe even a lead at the break. But in the final 20 minutes, when the benches start to empty, I’m afraid the Blues are primed to run away with it. My guess at a score? 45-26 to the Blues.
With you,
Alice
PS. I am so glad Ella Ferguson is working at New Zealand Rugby! Not only was the media release I received this week the most comprehensive I have seen for this competition so far, she’s also been so responsive to my requests for more info.
Please have more people that love the game like I do in charge of putting these details together forever. Kthnxbye.